Book

Armed Group Constellations: From Battlefield Interactions to Emergent Structures. Syria and Beyond (forthcoming with Cambridge University Press)

In multiparty civil wars, rebel groups face a paradox: they must cooperate to defeat common enemies yet compete for territory, resources, and influence. This book explains how groups navigate this tension, with some cooperating deeply across military operations and governance while engaging in violent disputes – and why some relationships prove resilient while others rupture into permanent enmity. Drawing on rare access to Syrian rebel commanders and officials of rebel governance bodies, hundreds of Arabic primary documents, and in-depth studies of Syria, Ethiopia, and Myanmar, the book introduces constellation theory. Repeated interactions between armed groups crystallize into relational structures – constellations – characterized by distinct combinations of geographic reach (localized vs widespread) and thematic scope (single domain vs multiple domains). Groups become embedded through territorial interdependence and shared institutions, creating path dependencies that sustain cooperation even when initial commonalities weaken. These relational structures enable two crucial outcomes: resilience through conflict management institutions that allow relationships to survive violence, and consolidation through organizational foundations that facilitate centralized authority. The framework explains patterns existing theories miss: how cooperation persists through recurring conflict, when violence destroys cooperation versus when institutions enable adaptation, and how constellations shape whether movements consolidate under unified leadership or fragment into competing factions – dynamics determining civil war trajectories and outcomes.